🪧 IRAN UNREST AND REGIME STABILITY: Protests against the rule of the ayatollahs were reported at universities across Iran.
According to The New York Times, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei instructed Ali Larijani to run the country following the January unrest and to ensure regime continuity even if Khamenei is eliminated.
“According to the six senior officials and the Guards members, Khamenei has issued a series of directives. He has named four layers of succession for each of the military command and government roles that he personally appoints. He has also told everyone in leadership roles to name up to four replacements and has delegated responsibilities to a tight circle of confidants to make decisions in case communications with him are disrupted or he is killed.”
“Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, turned to a trusted and loyal lieutenant to steer the country: Ali Larijani, the country’s top national security official. Since then, Mr. Larijani, a 67-year-old veteran politician, a former commander in the Revolutionary Guards Corps and current head of the Supreme National Security Council, has effectively been running the country. Khamenei named three candidates who could succeed him. They have never been publicly identified, but Larijani is almost certainly not among them because he is not a senior Shiite cleric — a fundamental qualification for any successor.”
‼️ U.S. MILITARY POSTURE AND STRATEGY: Israel’s security cabinet will convene this evening to discuss Iran, Gaza, and Lebanon.
According to Yedioth Ahronoth, the U.S. was expected to attack Iran over the weekend but the strike was postponed to an unspecified near-term date.
“Israel was prepared for a US attack on Iran this weekend, but the operation was postponed. The US strategy is shifting from a short and decisive strike to a long-term attritional campaign aimed at systematically weakening Iran's nuclear facilities, missile systems, and the infrastructure of the IRGC,” Ynet reported.
At least nine U.S. C-17 transport aircraft were observed overnight en route to the Middle East.
🇺🇸 WITKOFF REMARKS AND IRANIAN REGIME NARRATIVE: U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff questioned why Iran has not “capitulated” under mounting American military pressure, citing the scale of deployed U.S. naval power and asking why Tehran has not declared it does not seek nuclear weapons.
Analysis circulating in policy commentary argues the premise may be flawed, assessing that Iran’s ruling structure prioritizes regime survival and ideological continuity over economic cost or public welfare. Within this framework, nuclear capability or its perception functions as core strategic leverage, externally against adversaries and internally over the population, making voluntary “capitulation” unlikely regardless of pressure.
Iranian channels expressed pride in the Islamic Republic’s “resilience” following Witkoff’s remarks, portraying President Trump as weak and the ayatollah regime as strong.
🗣️ IRAN SIGNALS TALKS WHILE ASSERTING RED LINES: A senior Iranian official told Reuters: “We will hold indirect talks with the US in early March and there is a possibility of reaching a temporary agreement. Our right to enrich uranium under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty must be recognized.”
A senior Iranian official told Reuters: “We will not hand over control of our oil and mineral resources to America.”
Iran has designated the naval and air forces of EU member states as “terrorist organizations” after the EU classified the IRGC as a terrorist organization.
🧭 REGIONAL DIPLOMATIC SIGNALS
A Somaliland minister told AFP: “We offered the US to exploit our minerals and establish military bases.”
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