‼️ U.S. military posture toward Iran President Trump posted on Truth Social that he has not forgotten his pledge that “help is on the way.” In a segment aired by Hannity, the president’s comments on Air Force One were replayed, describing additional U.S. military assets moving to the Middle East. Trump said the U.S. is sending a massive naval armada, including an aircraft carrier, toward Iran as a precaution. He added that he hopes it won’t be necessary to use it, but said, “we’ll have to see what happens.” 🚨 Assessments of possible U.S. action: According to Israeli Channel 12, the United States is expected to complete regional preparations in the coming days for a possible attack against Iran. Reuters reported that the U.S. military has deployed more forces to the Middle East than during the First and Second Gulf Wars and the Iraq War. Israeli assessments indicate that once deployments are complete, any potential strike would depend on decision and timing, with Israel not...
THE IRAN–U.S. CONFRONTATION WON’T START IN IRAN — AND ISRAEL MAY FACE STRONG INCENTIVES TO MOVE FIRST
The coming confrontation between Iran and the United States is often framed as a binary moment: Washington acts or holds back; Tehran retaliates or absorbs the pressure. This framing is simple, accessible, and largely misleading. If escalation occurs, it is unlikely to unfold as a conventional state-to-state conflict, and it is unlikely to begin where many observers expect. Instead, escalation would most likely emerge as a system-level event—an activation of Iran’s regional proxy architecture—designed to distribute risk, externalize damage, and preserve regime survival. Within that system, Israel is not a peripheral actor but a forward pressure point where consequences are most likely to manifest first. As the region moved into late December and early January, intelligence indicators suggested that Israel was preparing for a significant military campaign in southern Lebanon, extending south of the Litani River and potentially beyond it. According to this assessment, the campaign ...