🛡️ U.S. REINFORCES AIR AND NAVAL POSTURE AROUND ISRAEL AS IRAN NUCLEAR TALKS ADVANCE, OIL SURGE SIGNALS CONTINGENCY PREPARATIONS, AND STRIKE RISK EXPECTATIONS RISE

♟️ U.S. military deployments: Israeli media report that additional U.S. Air Force assets arrived today at an IDF air base in southern Israel. The U.S. is deploying six more F-22 fighter jets to Israel, bringing the total to 18 aircraft.

Israeli Air Force Commander Tomer Bar met today with the pilots of the U.S. F-22 jets, according to Channel 12.

Associated Press reporting says U.S. Navy ships normally docked at the Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain have moved out to sea. The Fifth Fleet referred questions to U.S. Central Command, which declined to comment.

Satellite photos shot Tuesday by Planet Labs PBC and analyzed by the AP appear to show the vessels have left port and are now at sea. Before Iran’s June attack on Qatar, the Fifth Fleet similarly dispersed ships at sea to protect against a potential attack.

🔸 Iran diplomacy and Israeli concerns: Iran has prepared a detailed nuclear agreement proposal approved by senior Iranian leadership, to be presented to the U.S. tomorrow during talks in Geneva, Axios reports. Maariv reports concern in Israel that U.S. President Trump could resolve the confrontation through a superficial and hasty agreement, similar to what happened with the Houthis.

An Israeli security source told Israel Hayom: "An American strike will most likely lead to the overthrow of the ayatollahs".

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqhchi said: "President Trump has become a victim of fake news, and we are not developing weapons that can reach the US. We deliberately limited the range of our missiles to 2000 kilometers, and this is solely for self-defense and deterrence".

Araqhchi also said: "There is only one country in the region that wants war, and that is Israel. Israel is trying to drag President Trump into a war with Iran".

🛢️ Energy and economic signals: Iran has been loading oil onto tankers at an unusually rapid pace in recent days, which may signal preparations in case of a U.S. attack. Bloomberg cites tracking company Kepler data showing exports from Kharg Island between February 15 and 20 totaled nearly 20.1 million barrels, almost three times the volume loaded on the same dates in January, equivalent to more than 3 million barrels per day.

Reuters reports Saudi Arabia has also increased the pace of oil production and exports in recent days amid fears of a U.S. attack on Iran or a prolonged conflict that would disrupt Middle East supply.

🎰 Market expectations of strike timing: An Israel Hayom analysis (Feb. 25) cites Polymarket trading data showing rising expectations of a U.S. strike on Iran over the coming months, but not immediately. The probabilities cited were 35% by March 7, 46% by March 15, 61% by March 31, 69% by June 30, and 74% by year’s end.

The analysis says the sharpest movement was in the March 31 line, which rose about 44%, while March 15 rose about 17%, pointing to a shift in sentiment toward heightened risk in the coming months rather than days. Platform commentary also cited speculation that President Trump historically prefers major actions when U.S. markets are closed and referenced KLM’s decision to cancel flights to Israel beginning March 1 as a possible indicator of rising regional risk.

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