THE IRAN–U.S. CONFRONTATION WON’T START IN IRAN — AND ISRAEL MAY FACE STRONG INCENTIVES TO MOVE FIRST

The coming confrontation between Iran and the United States is often framed as a binary moment: Washington acts or holds back; Tehran retaliates or absorbs the pressure. This framing is simple, accessible, and largely misleading. If escalation occurs, it is unlikely to unfold as a conventional state-to-state conflict, and it is unlikely to begin where m…