🔸 SMOTRICH-FEIGLIN TALKS ACCELERATE AS NETANYAHU COURTS WINTER: Kan’s merger scenarios demonstrate how sensitive the right-wing arithmetic remains. A Smotrich-Ben Gvir joint list receives 10 seats, compared with 12 combined when they run separately, while Winter rises to 5.
A Smotrich-Moshe Feiglin alliance receives 7 seats but pushes Winter below the electoral threshold. The reported gap between the blocs in that scenario is 55–52. Channel 14 separately places Feiglin’s Zehut at 2.3%, still below threshold.
Smotrich and Feiglin are reportedly significantly accelerating negotiations. Amit Segal said Smotrich has a solid Hardal, or Haredi-Leumi, base and Feiglin has a solid Feiglinist base, adding that in this case “1+1 really does equal 2.”
Netanyahu and Winter also met privately one-on-one. Winter rejected Netanyahu’s offer of two reserved spots on the Likud list. The initial report said both sides declined to comment, but Netanyahu later confirmed the meeting, saying: “I met with Winter and told him, ‘Come join us and you’ll be welcomed with open arms.’ He chose to go his own way, and we’re in danger.”
Netanyahu also said on Channel 14: “If Smotrich and Feiglin unite, it would be a tremendous blessing. I’ll help them in every way I can.”
Netanyahu separately said the ultra-Orthodox could join forces with the left because staying in power comes before everything else, although he said it was not certain they would succeed.
Winter, chairman of Amcha Yisrael, rejected arguments that his party threatens the right-wing camp:
“I’ve heard some people say that Amcha Yisrael is endangering the right-wing camp. What endangers the right-wing camp and the entire people of Israel is kites from Gaza.
What endangers the right-wing camp and the entire people of Israel is hundreds of aid trucks entering the Gaza Strip every day. There is only one real way to bring about change in the right-wing camp and in general: new people who played no part in the failures of October 7. New people who will focus more on leadership and less on politics. We are part of the right-wing camp, but we work for no one—only for the people of Israel.”
🔸 EISENKOT AND BENNETT COURT LIEBERMAN OVER SURPLUS-VOTE AGREEMENT: Eisenkot and Bennett have both approached Avigdor Lieberman seeking a surplus-vote agreement.
Under Israel’s electoral system, two lists can sign such an agreement so their surplus votes are considered together when the remaining Knesset mandates are distributed after the initial seat allocation. Each list can sign with only one partner, and the agreement does not merge the parties.
That makes Lieberman’s choice politically significant. According to the report, whichever of Eisenkot or Bennett does not sign with Lieberman would have to pursue a surplus-vote agreement with Yair Golan.
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