⚓ REPORTED HOUTHI GAINS THREATEN SHIPPING AND OIL EXPORTS: AFP reported that the Iran-backed Houthis seized Perim (Mayyun) Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, while Reuters reported that their forces reached Dhubab, the coastal town directly on the waterway. According to Globes and N12, the advance extended Houthi control over nearly the entire Yemeni Red Sea coast, giving them a strategically significant position overlooking a critical international shipping route.
Perim divides the approximately 29-km-wide strait into two shipping channels. Control of the island and nearby coastline allows the Houthis to threaten passing vessels with artillery and short-range weapons, alongside the longer-range missiles and drones previously launched from inland positions. The eastern channel is only about 3 km wide, placing vessels within visual range of nearby positions.
An Israeli official told Channel 12 that the geography makes the threat worse than at Hormuz: “They will be able to fire at whatever they want with anti-tank missiles. They will be able to see the ships with their own eyes.” The official said this proximity reduces the need for radar and sophisticated surveillance systems to target nearby vessels.
Reuters reported that the gains also threaten Saudi Arabia’s alternative oil-export route. Riyadh has increasingly relied on its East-West Pipeline to transport oil to Yanbu on the Red Sea, bypassing Hormuz. Houthi control of the Bab el-Mandeb approaches could threaten onward shipping through the southern Red Sea, placing two critical maritime chokepoints under simultaneous pressure from Iran and its allies.
Roughly 10% of global seaborne trade normally passes through Bab el-Mandeb. Brent crude has traded above $107 a barrel amid the regional disruption, according to The Wall Street Journal.
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Trouble ahead.