Two national mandate polls published Sunday night show an important change in the post-Winter political landscape: both Kan/Kantar and Channel 14/NEXT DATA now place Ofer Winter and Religious Zionism above the 3.25% electoral threshold simultaneously. Several previous polls had shown Winter entering largely at Smotrich’s expense.
Kan/Kantar gives Eisenkot’s Yashar! 24 seats, Likud 21, Bennett’s Together 14, Democrats 9, Yisrael Beiteinu 8, UTJ 8, the unified Hadash-Ta’al-Balad list 8, Otzma Yehudit 7, Shas 7, Religious Zionism 5, Ra’am 5 and Winter’s Amcha Yisrael 4.
The blocs stand at Netanyahu + Winter 52, the non-Arab opposition 55 and Arab parties 13. Compared with Kan’s August 23 poll, Netanyahu’s side rises from 51 to 52 while the non-Arab opposition falls from 57 to 55.
More significantly, Kan’s previous Winter scenario gave Winter 5 seats but pushed Smotrich below threshold, leaving the combined Netanyahu-Winter camp at only 50. The new poll gives Religious Zionism 5 and Winter 4, meaning Smotrich is one seat ahead even before any merger and providing the first significant Kan indication that both parties may be able to survive simultaneously.
Channel 14/NEXT DATA gives Likud 31, Yashar! 24, Shas 10, Democrats 8, Otzma Yehudit 7, UTJ 7, Yisrael Beiteinu 7, the unified Arab list 7, Bennett 6, Ra’am 5, Religious Zionism 4 and Winter 4.
Its bloc result remains unchanged from August 27: Netanyahu + Winter 63, the non-Arab opposition 45 and Arab parties 12.
The pollster divide therefore remains enormous. Kan puts Netanyahu’s camp at 52 while Channel 14 puts essentially the same camp at 63, an 11-seat difference. Likud alone differs by 10 seats, 21 versus 31, while Bennett differs by eight, 14 versus 6. By contrast, both polls now place Eisenkot at 24, Winter at 4 and Smotrich at 4–5.
There is therefore still no polling consensus on a path to 61. The continuing disagreement over who can reach a governing majority remains heavily concentrated around Likud and Bennett rather than showing clear evidence of a nationwide shift. The narrower but significant new signal is that two sharply different pollsters now simultaneously show both Winter and Smotrich crossing the threshold. One night is not enough to establish a trend, but whether both can continue surviving together is now one of the most important threshold developments to watch.
🔁 Know someone who should see this? Forward it.
🌐 Full updates & discussion: https://www.israelrealtime.com