🗳️ POLLS REMAIN STABLE WITH 13-SEAT BLOC GAP AND GROWING RIGHT-WING THRESHOLD RISK: Two national polls published Monday night show remarkably little movement within each polling series but a dramatic disagreement between the pollsters.
News 12 gives Netanyahu’s bloc 50 seats, the non-Arab opposition 59 and Arab parties 11. Channel 14/NEXT DATA gives Netanyahu’s bloc 63, the non-Arab opposition 47 and Arab parties 10.
Both results are essentially unchanged from the respective pollsters’ previous surveys. News 12 again has Netanyahu’s bloc at 50, while Channel 14 again has it at 63. The disagreement therefore appears less like a sudden electoral swing and more like a persistent difference between the polling models.
Both polls nevertheless agree on one major number: Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar! receives 24 seats in both.
The largest disagreement is over Likud and Bennett’s Together. News 12 gives Likud 22 seats and Together 15, while Channel 14 gives Likud 32 and Together 7. That Likud-Bennett divide accounts for much of the extraordinary 13-seat gap in Netanyahu’s projected bloc.
The electoral threshold is also becoming increasingly important. In News 12’s Ofer Winter scenario, Winter enters with four seats, but Religious Zionism falls to 2.4% and fails to cross the 3.25% threshold. Netanyahu’s bloc consequently falls from 50 to 49, while the non-Arab opposition rises to 60.
That closely mirrors the latest Kan scenario, where Winter entered with five seats but Smotrich again fell below the threshold, weakening Netanyahu’s overall bloc.
Channel 14 presents the opposite picture. Winter receives only 2.1% and remains below threshold, while Religious Zionism wins five seats and Netanyahu’s bloc reaches 63.
Other small lists also remain close to, but below, the threshold in News 12 scenarios, reinforcing the possibility that wasted votes could ultimately determine the path to 61.
For now, the strongest recurring signals are Eisenkot’s stability around 24 seats, the enormous pollster disagreement over Likud and Bennett, and the growing Winter-Smotrich threshold problem on the right. News 12’s opposition reaches 60 in the Winter scenario, one seat short of an independent majority, while Channel 14 continues to project a clear Netanyahu majority.
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