đłď¸ Evening polls leave bloc totals unchanged: Two September 17 evening polls place Netanyahuâs bloc close to or above the 61-seat Knesset majority, but neither shows an improvement over the same pollsterâs previous survey.
The i24NEWS/Direct Polls survey gives Netanyahuâs bloc 60 seats, the non-Arab opposition 48 and Arab parties 12, unchanged from September 9. Likud remains at 27. Eisenkotâs Yashar falls from 22 to 21, Bennett from 10 to nine and Otzma Yehudit from eight to seven. Winter rises from four to five and Yisrael Beiteinu from seven to eight, leaving the bloc balance unchanged.
Channel 14/NEXT DATA retains its previous totals: Netanyahuâs bloc 64, the non-Arab opposition 44 and Arab parties 12. Compared with September 15, Likud rises from 30 to 31, Eisenkot falls from 21 to 20, Bennett rises from eight to nine and SmotrichâFeiglin falls from eight to seven.
đ Wider polling picture remains inconsistent: Earlier September 17 surveys put Eisenkot ahead of Likud in both Tatika, at 24â22, and Kantar, at 22â20. Bennett receives 14 and 13 seats respectively, compared with nine in both evening polls. The LikudâBennett gap ranges from seven seats in Kantar and eight in Tatika to 18 in i24 and 22 in Channel 14.
September 14 polls showed a more fragmented coalition picture. News 12 put Netanyahuâs bloc at 50 and the non-Arab opposition at 54, while Kan/Kantar had them tied at 52 each. Both allocated 12 seats to Arab parties and counted HendelâZelekhaâs four separately.
The accompanying analysis identifies a possible weakening signal for Eisenkot, but no consistent national trend: he loses one seat in each evening polling series and two seats to reach 22 in the earlier Kantar survey, while Tatika raises him from 23 to 24. These small, mixed changes do not establish sustained erosion, and differences between pollsters do not themselves demonstrate a rapid shift in voter support.
â ď¸ Threshold risks complicate coalition arithmetic: Winter receives five seats in i24 and four in the September 17 Kantar survey, but falls below the 3.25% electoral threshold in Channel 14 at 2.6% and Tatika at 3.0%. HendelâZelekha receives 2.2% in both evening polls, remaining below the threshold despite increases from the previous surveys. SmotrichâFeiglin receives six to seven seats in the evening polls, while Tatikaâs four-seat projection indicates a narrower margin elsewhere.
A separate Israel Hayom/Kantar survey measures coalition preferences, rather than projected seats. Overall, 17% say expected coalition partners make them significantly reconsider or less likely to support their chosen party. That rises to more than one-quarter of Winter supporters and 32% of HendelâZelekha supporters. Israel Hayom describes this sensitivity as potentially existential for both lists.
The accompanying analysis highlights a key distinction: i24âs 60-seat Netanyahu bloc includes Winterâs five seats, while Channel 14 projects a 64-seat majority with Winter already outside the Knesset. A threshold crossing could change seat allocation, but the resulting bloc totals cannot be calculated simply by adding or subtracting a partyâs projected mandates.
Taken together, the surveys show substantial disagreement over bloc strength and unresolved threshold risks, without a synchronized shift toward either camp.
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