📊 WINTER AND SMOTRICH BOTH CLEAR THE THRESHOLD, BUT POLLSTERS REMAIN FAR APART: Sunday night’s Kan/Kantar and Channel 14/NEXT DATA polls both place Ofer Winter’s Amcha Yisrael and Religious Zionism above the 3.25% electoral threshold simultaneously, a notable change from earlier polling in which Winter’s entry frequently came at Smotrich’s expense.
Kan/Kantar gives Yashar! 24 seats, Likud 21, Together 14, Democrats 9, Yisrael Beiteinu 8, UTJ 8, Hadash-Ta’al-Balad 8, Otzma Yehudit 7, Shas 7, Religious Zionism 5, Ra’am 5 and Winter 4. Its blocs stand at Netanyahu + Winter 52, the non-Arab opposition 55 and Arab parties 13. Kan’s August 23 Winter scenario had instead given Winter 5 while pushing Smotrich below threshold, leaving the combined camp at 50.
Channel 14/NEXT DATA gives Likud 31, Yashar! 24, Shas 10, Democrats 8, Otzma Yehudit 7, UTJ 7, Yisrael Beiteinu 7, the unified Arab list 7, Together 6, Ra’am 5, Religious Zionism 4 and Winter 4. Its bloc division remains Netanyahu + Winter 63, non-Arab opposition 45 and Arab parties 12.
The central polling disagreement therefore remains unresolved: Netanyahu’s camp differs by 11 seats between the two surveys, Likud by 10 seats and Bennett by eight. Both pollsters nevertheless converge on Eisenkot at 24, Winter at 4 and Smotrich at 4–5, making the simultaneous survival of Winter and Smotrich the clearest new threshold signal while leaving no broader polling consensus on a governing majority.
🤝 RIGHT-WING ALLIANCE TALKS INTENSIFY: Kan’s scenarios illustrate the sensitivity of the right-wing vote. A Smotrich-Ben Gvir joint list receives 10 seats compared with 12 combined when they run separately, while Winter rises to 5. A Smotrich-Moshe Feiglin alliance receives 7 but pushes Winter below threshold, with the reported bloc gap at 55–52. Channel 14 separately places Feiglin’s Zehut at 2.3%.
Smotrich and Feiglin are reportedly accelerating negotiations. Netanyahu also met privately with Winter and offered him two reserved Likud slots, which Winter rejected. Netanyahu later confirmed the meeting and warned that Winter’s independent run could endanger the camp, while publicly encouraging a Smotrich-Feiglin alliance. Winter rejected claims that Amcha Yisrael threatens the right, arguing that the camp requires new leadership unconnected to the failures of October 7.
🗳️ EISENKOT AND BENNETT COMPETE FOR LIEBERMAN ELECTORAL AGREEMENT: Both Gideon Eisenkot and Naftali Bennett have approached Avigdor Lieberman over a surplus-vote agreement. Such agreements allow two separate lists to combine surplus votes when remaining Knesset seats are allocated, and each party may sign with only one partner. According to the report, whichever of Eisenkot or Bennett does not reach an agreement with Lieberman would have to pursue one with Yair Golan.
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