🗳️ KAN/KANTAR: NETANYAHU 52, OPPOSITION 51: A September 6 Kan News/Kantar poll gives Eisenkot’s Yashar 23 seats, Likud 20, Bennett’s Together 13, Democrats 8, UTJ 8, Shas 7, Otzma Yehudit 7, Yisrael Beiteinu 7, Joint List 7, Ra’am 6, Smotrich-Feiglin 6, Ofer Winter 4 and the new Yoaz Hendel-Yaron Zelekha list 4.
The blocs stand at Netanyahu 52, the non-Arab opposition 51 and Arab parties 13, with Hendel-Zelekha currently unaligned. The poll surveyed 551 respondents with a maximum sampling error of ±4.2%.
🔸 HENDEL-ZELEKHA BECOMES A COALITION HINGE: Compared with Kan’s August 30 poll, Netanyahu remains at 52 while the opposition falls from 55 to 51, largely because Hendel-Zelekha now runs separately. Netanyahu is nine seats short of 61 and the opposition ten short. Hendel-Zelekha could raise Netanyahu to 56 or the opposition to 55; the latter could then reach 61 with Ra’am’s six seats. The new list therefore represents a potentially important coalition hinge rather than an automatic opposition component.
⚠️ WINTER REMAINS A THRESHOLD RISK: Winter has reached four seats in two consecutive Kan polls and in recent Maariv and Israel Hayom polls, while Zman Yisrael and Channel 14 placed him below the 3.25% threshold. Smotrich-Feiglin appears more secure at six seats.
Wider polling remains sharply divided, with recent Netanyahu-bloc projections ranging from about 50 to 53 in several polls, versus 60 in i24/Direct Polls and 63 in Channel 14. Kan’s 52 therefore fits the broader non-Channel-14 picture rather than indicating a sudden rightward shift.
🇮🇱 CANDIDATE LISTS TAKE SHAPE: With roughly 50 days until the election, candidate-list submissions begin today. Bennett and Eisenkot submitted separate lists, ending the remaining prospect of a merger. Bennett requested the ballot letter “B,” while Eisenkot requested “Derech.”
Winter is expected to run independently despite appeals from dozens of rabbis to unite. The Haredi Public Party said it rejected Winter’s offer to place its figures in the eighth and ninth slots. Religious Zionism accused Winter of “irresponsibly” risking right-wing rule by running alone and said Smotrich would now consider reserved candidates to strengthen his slate.
🔹 OTHER POLITICAL MOVES: May Golan said Ben-Gvir offered her a realistic reserved spot but she declined and intends to “take a break.” Amit Segal reported that Ayelet Shaked will not run, while assessing that she could eventually join Likud; that remains an assessment rather than a confirmed development.
Lieberman said significant differences remain with Eisenkot but warned against damaging internal fighting. Bennett said his movement would “defeat Hezbollah and Hamas” and had selected candidates who “won’t cave to any pressure.”
The emerging picture is increasingly fragmented: Eisenkot has consolidated much of the center, Netanyahu still faces strategic uncertainty surrounding Winter and the electoral threshold, and Hendel-Zelekha has introduced another potentially decisive four-seat variable into the coalition arithmetic.
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