🏛️ ISRAELI POLLS, LAND AUTHORITY DISPUTE AND FOREIGN-INTERFERENCE ALLEGATIONS

🕑 Published: September 10, 2026 · 1:19 PM Israel time

🗳️ Threshold shifts change coalition arithmetic: The September 9 Walla/Lazar poll gives Yashar 25 seats, Likud 21, Bennett 14, Democrats 9, Yisrael Beiteinu 9, Otzma Yehudit 7, UTJ 7, Shas 7, Joint List 7, Smotrich–Feiglin 5, Ra’am 5 and Winter 4. The non-Arab opposition has 57, Netanyahu’s bloc including Winter 51, and Arab parties 12.

Winter rises from 2.8% to 3.5%, crossing the 3.25% threshold, while Hendel–Zelekha falls to 2.8% and loses four seats. This removes the previous Lazar/Panel4All poll’s theoretical 57-plus-four non-Arab majority and raises Netanyahu’s total from 47 to 51. The core opposition remains at 57: the swing reflects threshold outcomes rather than clear evidence of broad movement between blocs. A reported survey margin of roughly ±4% leaves small-party positions uncertain.

Channel 14 diverges sharply, giving Netanyahu’s bloc 64 seats and Smotrich–Feiglin eight, with Winter below the threshold. The supplied evening summary gives opposition–Netanyahu totals of 52–52 on Channel 11, 57–52 on Channel 12, 53–53 on Channel 13, 44–64 on Channel 14 and 48–60 on the source-labelled Channel 15.

Kan reports Smotrich, Winter and Yaron Zelekha crossing the threshold. An unattributed 53–53 poll gives Arab parties 14 and Winter five, versus Channel 13’s four; Hendel–Zelekha, Gantz and the Haredi Public Party fall below the threshold.

Amit Segal assessed that Netanyahu is losing six seats to Eisenkot and his allies and six to abstention. Yashar’s Yoram Cohen said the party could form a minority government without 61 seats if it still had a majority, hoping opposition elements would join, according to Makor Rishon’s Shir Sasson.

⚖️ Competing accounts of the Land Authority hearing: Reports that Haim Katz summoned acting ILA chief Yehuda Eliyahu to a pre-dismissal hearing drew Likud criticism. A defense statement cited Netanyahu’s approval of Eliyahu’s appointment and said he would not be dismissed. Katz’s office denied that characterization and any connection to requested appointments.

Katz cited alleged mismanagement, exclusion of women, poor interpersonal relations and failure to cooperate on career-service families’ entitlements. He promised a good-faith hearing and, absent agreement, an interim director to advance settlement and staffing reforms. Eliyahu accused Katz of seeking interference and appointments for his own people.

Smotrich defended Eliyahu, alleging corruption and attacks by political operatives without naming Katz. Invoking Yom Kippur, he declared: “There will be no forgiveness and no pardon. Neither on Yom Kippur nor after the elections.” He said his party would seek control of the ILA and Planning Administration to address alleged corruption, strengthen Jewish settlement in the Negev and Galilee and lower housing costs.

📰 Likud’s allegations and Dermer’s denial: Likud sought a criminal investigation into Shlomi Eldar, Ruth Yuval, Haaretz, Yair Golan and the Democrats over alleged foreign coordination surrounding a report of a pre-October 7 Netanyahu–Mohammed bin Zayed conversation.

Likud alleged that Mohammed Dahlan backed the report to promote a government of Eisenkot, Golan, Lieberman and Arab parties that would withdraw from Gaza and give him control. It also alleged Dahlan had formed an electoral list with Hamas, that a Democrats-linked nonprofit paid Eldar, and that a Golan–Ronen Bar UAE visit might be connected. These claims were not substantiated in the supplied material.

At Washington’s MEAD Conference, Ron Dermer denied the conversation and its reported content. He said he participated in or was briefed on all such leaders’ conversations, cited both sides’ denials and called it “essentially a fabrication. Just a made-up story.”

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