🗳️ ISRAELI POLLS AND DERMER’S UAE DENIAL

🕑 Published: September 10, 2026 · 12:26 PM Israel time

🗳️ WALLA POLL: WINTER IN, HENDEL–ZELEKHA OUT, NO MAJORITY; EISENKOT ALLY FLOATS MINORITY GOVERNMENT: The September 9 Walla/Lazar poll, described as its first after candidate lists closed, gives Eisenkot’s Yashar 25 seats, Likud 21, Bennett 14, Democrats 9, Yisrael Beiteinu 9, Otzma Yehudit 7, UTJ 7, Shas 7, Joint List 7, Smotrich–Feiglin 5, Ra’am 5 and Ofer Winter 4.

The non-Arab opposition has 57 seats, Netanyahu’s bloc including Winter has 51, and the Arab parties have 12. Neither bloc reaches the 61-seat majority.

The main change from the previous day’s Lazar/Panel4All poll concerns the 3.25% electoral threshold. Winter rises from 2.8% to 3.5%, securing four seats, while Hendel–Zelekha falls to 2.8% and loses its four seats. This removes the previous poll’s theoretical 57-plus-four route to a non-Arab majority and raises Netanyahu’s total including Winter from 47 to 51. The core non-Arab opposition remains unchanged at 57.

Eisenkot holds at 25, Likud rises from 20 to 21, Bennett from 13 to 14, Democrats falls from 10 to 9 and Otzma Yehudit from eight to seven. The apparent coalition swing therefore reflects which small lists clear the threshold, rather than clear evidence of a broad shift between blocs. With a reported survey margin of roughly ±4%, small parties’ threshold positions remain uncertain.

Walla’s leading-party results resemble News 12’s poll two days earlier, which showed Eisenkot at 25, Likud at 21 and Bennett at 13, with Winter entering the Knesset. These polls suggest greater consistency in Eisenkot’s mid-20s standing and Bennett’s low-to-mid teens. Smotrich–Feiglin holds at five in Walla, while Winter and Hendel–Zelekha have alternated between entering and falling below the threshold in recent surveys.

Other reported polls differ substantially. Channel 14 gives Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc 64 seats and Smotrich–Feiglin eight, with Winter well below the threshold. Channel 13 reports Eisenkot at 22, Likud at 19, Bennett at 13, Shas at seven and Winter at four.

The poll identified in the supplied material as Channel 15 puts Bennett at 10, with Winter entering. A Kan 11 update says Eisenkot and Likud each gain one seat, while Smotrich, Winter and Yaron Zelekha clear the threshold.

The supplied evening summary lists opposition–Netanyahu bloc totals of 52–52 on Channel 11, 57–52 on Channel 12, 53–53 on Channel 13, 44–64 on Channel 14 and 48–60 on Channel 15.

A separate, unattributed poll update reports unchanged blocs at 53–53, with Arab parties at 14, Winter rising to five, and Hendel–Zelekha, Gantz and the Haredi Public Party below the threshold. Its Winter figure differs from the four seats cited for Channel 13.

In his analysis, Amit Segal said Netanyahu is losing six seats to Eisenkot and his allies and another six to voters staying home, making mobilization of his base a central question.

Separately, Eisenkot’s number two, Yoram Cohen, told a house meeting in Petah Tikva: “If we don’t get 61 seats but still have a majority, we’ll form a minority government, in the hope that parts of the opposition will join,” according to Shir Sasson of Makor Rishon.

📰 DERMER’S RESPONSE TO THE REPORTED NETANYAHU–UAE CONVERSATION: Speaking at the MEAD Conference in Washington, former Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer denied that the alleged Netanyahu–UAE conversation occurred: “Did such a conversation take place? No.”

Dermer said his responsibilities included expanding the Abraham Accords and strengthening ties with the UAE, and that he was either briefed on or participated in all conversations between Netanyahu and Mohammed bin Zayed.

“This conversation did not take place,” he said, later adding: “I don’t think there was a conversation at all. And that content certainly wasn’t discussed.”

Dermer said both the Emiratis and the Israeli side had denied the account, calling it “essentially a fabrication. Just a made-up story.”

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