🗳️ KAN POLL LEAVES BOTH BLOCS SHORT: A September 6 Kan News/Kantar poll gives Eisenkot’s Yashar 23 seats, Likud 20, Bennett’s Together 13, Democrats 8, UTJ 8, Shas 7, Otzma Yehudit 7, Yisrael Beiteinu 7, Joint List 7, Ra’am 6, Smotrich-Feiglin 6, Ofer Winter 4 and Hendel-Zelekha 4. The blocs stand at Netanyahu 52, the non-Arab opposition 51 and Arab parties 13, with Hendel-Zelekha unaligned. The poll surveyed 551 respondents with a maximum sampling error of ±4.2%.
🔑 HENDEL-ZELEKHA EMERGES AS A FOUR-SEAT HINGE: Netanyahu remains at 52 compared with Kan’s August 30 poll, while the non-Arab opposition falls from 55 to 51, largely because Hendel-Zelekha is now counted separately. Netanyahu remains nine seats short of 61 and the opposition ten short. Hendel-Zelekha could bring Netanyahu to 56 or the opposition to 55, with the latter then reaching 61 if joined by Ra’am’s six seats.
📊 WINTER REMAINS A THRESHOLD VARIABLE: Winter has received four seats in two consecutive Kan polls and recent Maariv and Israel Hayom surveys, while Zman Yisrael and Channel 14 placed him below the 3.25% threshold. Smotrich-Feiglin stands at six seats in the latest Kan poll. Recent projections remain sharply divided, with Netanyahu’s bloc at roughly 50 to 53 in several polls, compared with 60 in i24/Direct Polls and 63 in Channel 14.
📜 CANDIDATE LISTS TAKE SHAPE: With roughly 50 days until the election, candidate-list submissions begin today. Bennett and Eisenkot submitted separate lists, ending the remaining prospect of a merger. Bennett requested the ballot letter “B,” while Eisenkot requested “Derech.” Winter is expected to run independently despite appeals from dozens of rabbis to unite. The Haredi Public Party said it rejected Winter’s offer to place its figures in the eighth and ninth slots, while Religious Zionism accused him of “irresponsibly” risking right-wing rule and said Smotrich would consider reserved candidates to strengthen his slate.
🔹 OTHER POLITICAL MOVES: May Golan said Ben-Gvir offered her a realistic reserved spot but that she declined and intends to “take a break.” Amit Segal reported Ayelet Shaked will not run and assessed that she could eventually join Likud, an assessment rather than a confirmed development. Lieberman said significant differences remain with Eisenkot but warned against damaging internal fighting. Bennett said his movement would “defeat Hezbollah and Hamas” and had selected candidates who “won’t cave to any pressure.”
🧩 THE POLITICAL FIELD REMAINS FRAGMENTED: Eisenkot has consolidated much of the center, Netanyahu continues to face uncertainty surrounding Winter and the electoral threshold, and Hendel-Zelekha has added another potentially decisive four-seat variable to the coalition arithmetic.
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