⛽ FUEL PRICE REDUCTION APPROVED: The Attorney General approved Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s move to lower fuel prices despite the election period. Prices are expected to fall by approximately half a shekel within about 48 hours.
📊 THREE POLLS HIGHLIGHT THE ELECTORAL THRESHOLD AS A CENTRAL VARIABLE: Wednesday’s national polls produced sharply different bloc totals but all focused attention on whether the Smotrich-Feiglin list and Ofer Winter’s Amcha Israel can both survive the threshold. i24NEWS / Direct Polls places Netanyahu + Winter at 60 seats, with Smotrich-Feiglin at 6 and Winter at 5. A hypothetical merger still produces a combined 11 seats, reducing threshold risk without adding mandates.
♟️ NEWS 13 AND WALLA SHOW VERY DIFFERENT RIGHT-WING OUTCOMES: Channel 13 places Netanyahu at 53 seats, level with the non-Arab opposition, while Arab parties receive 14; Smotrich-Feiglin wins 6 and Winter 4. Walla / Lazar Research places Netanyahu at 49, the non-Arab opposition at 58 and Arab parties at 13. Smotrich-Feiglin receives 5 seats, while Winter, at 2.3%, remains below the threshold. Walla also places Tropper-Hendel at 3.0% and estimates roughly 10% of votes, equivalent to about 12 mandates, currently go to parties below the threshold. In a scenario where Tally Gotliv moves from Likud to Otzma Yehudit, Winter rises to 2.8% but still fails to cross, while Netanyahu falls to 48.
🔎 CROSS-POLLSTER GAPS REMAIN LARGER THAN INTERNAL MOVEMENT: The same-day range runs from 60 seats for Netanyahu + Winter in i24, to 53 in News 13 and 49 in Walla, while Channel 14 remains around 63. Recent News 12 and Kan measurements have also placed Netanyahu substantially lower. Channel 12’s Amit Segal cautioned against interpreting the News 13 movement as a literal weekly voter shift, saying there was “no chance” roughly a quarter-million voters moved between blocs in one week and noting that most pollsters show little bloc movement. The polls therefore do not establish a synchronized national swing, but they do show that the Smotrich-Feiglin merger has materially altered the threshold landscape.
🇮🇱 WINTER SETS HAREDI DRAFT CONDITION FOR JOINING A GOVERNMENT: Winter said Amcha Israel intends to integrate Haredim into the IDF “without compromises or delays” and would not join a government unless legislation ending draft evasion is passed before its formation: “Without that, we will not serve in the government. Period.” Responding to reports that Netanyahu could offer Yoseph Haddad a reserved Likud position, Winter said: “We won’t let anyone drive a wedge between us.” Haddad described the group as “one united fist,” while Winter said any future political merger would be considered only with new political forces.
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