đ Channel 16 poll: a narrow bloc lead, with substantial differences between pollsters: The September 29 Channel 16/Maagar Mochot poll projects 53 seats for Netanyahuâs bloc, 51 for the non-Arab opposition and 12 for the Arab parties, with Hendel-Zelekhaâs four seats counted separately. Compared with September 24, Netanyahuâs bloc gains one seat and the non-Arab opposition loses one, breaking a 52â52 tie. Netanyahuâs camp remains eight seats short of a governing majority. The reported maximum sampling error is Âą4.2%.
Eisenkotâs Yashar falls from 23 to 21 seats, Likud remains at 19 and Bennettâs Together rises from 13 to 14. Eisenkotâs lead over Likud therefore narrows from four seats to two, while Likudâs lead over Bennett shrinks from six to five.
Democrats, Ofer Winter and Religious ZionismâZehut each gain one seat, reaching nine, five and six respectively. Yisrael Beiteinu and Otzma Yehudit each lose one, falling to seven and eight. The remaining projections are Shas eight, UTJ seven, Joint List seven, Raâam five and Hendel-Zelekha unchanged at four.
Differences between pollsters are substantially larger than these movements. Channel 14âs September 28 poll also gave Eisenkot 21 seats, but put Likud at 31 and Bennett at nine, compared with Channel 16âs 19 and 14. It placed Winter at 1.6% and Hendel-Zelekha at 2.1%, both below the electoral threshold, while giving Religious ZionismâZehut seven seats. The September 27 Kan/Kantar poll projected Eisenkot 23, Likud 21, Bennett 11, Winter four and Religious ZionismâZehut six, with the blocs tied at 52â52. These discrepancies caution against treating Eisenkotâs decline or Winterâs rise in Channel 16 as an established national trend.
Winter, Religious ZionismâZehut and Hendel-Zelekha all clear the threshold in Channel 16âs poll, but the available published reports do not provide their exact vote shares, leaving Hendel-Zelekhaâs four-seat result potentially sensitive to the threshold. Neither blocâs majority problem is resolved: Netanyahuâs 53 seats would become 57 with Hendel-Zelekha, while the non-Arab oppositionâs 51 would become 55 with Hendel-Zelekha and 60 with Raâam, still short of 61.
â˝ Additional gasoline subsidy being prepared: Smotrich said he had instructed Finance Ministry professional staff to prepare an additional subsidy to curb the surge in gasoline prices for consumers.
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